Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership approach, as observed during his initial term from 2012 to 2017, has shown a strong resistance to change.
Even after securing victory in the May 2022 election, following half a decade of opposition to his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s administration, his second term appears to be following a familiar pattern.
Hassan Sheikh’s campaign slogan of “Somalis at peace with themselves, and at peace with the world” has lost its luster.
Somalia is now more divided than at any point since the collapse of the last central government in 1990.
Deep-seated divisions persist among Somali political elites, particularly between the federal government and the five federal member states. Immediately after Hassan Sheikh’s election, tensions erupted between Puntland and Villa Somalia, with Puntland asserting its independence until a federal constitution is established, jeopardizing Somalia’s debt relief and state-building efforts.
Tensions have escalated between the federal government and Puntland, involving disputes over political, judicial, and security powers, as well as the use of key ports and natural resources. President Hassan Sheikh and Puntland’s Said Deni have not communicated for over a year.
In South West state, opposition groups demand state presidential elections in January 2024, while in Jubaland, President Ahmed Madobe clings to power despite the end of his term, with the opposition threatening a parallel government.
Galmudug faces a contentious leadership transition, fueled by rumors of the Somali Intelligence Chief’s favored successor, causing instability.
In Hirshabelle, political disputes between the state’s President Ali Gudlawe and the de facto leader of Hiiraan region Ali Jeyte hinder the fight against al Shabaab.
Despite Hassan Sheikh’s assurances of an inclusive and lawful government, corruption and nepotism have surged to alarming levels.
His administration continues to face criticism for corruption, media restrictions, and abuse of power.
On the counterterrorism front, the president’s will is apparent, but his strategy is lacking. Al Shabaab has regained territory, raising concerns about the readiness of the Somali National Army to assume full security responsibility, as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) plans to withdraw by the end of 2024.
His limited options include rallying the Federal Member States and developing a new strategy, as the current one seems ineffective.
He must also address discontent among government soldiers and consider potential changes in his cabinet.
To avert the definitive loss of the conflict, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may need to reevaluate his approach, solicit international support based on ground conditions rather than donor preferences, and contemplate a more diverse group of advisors and government officials. Exploring diplomatic channels to engage moderate elements within Al-Shabaab could also be a viable avenue forward.
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