MOGADISHU— In a surprising development, the Somalia’s immediate neighbors known as Frontline States, namely Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya, have indefinitely suspended their initial commitment to provide non-ATMIS troop support for the Somali Government’s second phase of the anti al-Shabab military operations, known as the ‘’Black Lion’’, officials said on Wednesday.
In an official letter seen by Horn Examiner, addressed to Major General Mohamed Ali Barise, the Force Commander of the Joint Mission Taskforce, Ethiopia surprisingly communicates their intention that their troops will not be part of the highly publicized operation.
The absence of the non-ATMIS Ethiopian troops from the much-touted second phase, which many security analysts consider a critical factor in the success of the planned operation, will represent a devastating setback and the prospect of an emboldened and strengthened Al-Shabab.
The Somali Government had previously counted on the support of its neighboring countries to bolster its efforts in the ongoing fight against terrorism.
The reasons behind the withdrawal of troop support remain unclear and speculation abounds about the potential implications for regional security.
The preparation of Black Lion Operation had gained momentum in recent months, raising hopes of progress against Al-Shabab’s continued insurgency.
However, In the absence of Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti’s military support who have initially pledged to contribute 18,000 troops, Somalia’s ability to effectively execute the second phase of the operation may face challenges.
The recent Frontline States Summit, held in Mogadishu in February, had brought together Djibouti President Ismail Guelleh, Kenyan President William Ruto and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, raising hopes for cooperation in the fight against terrorism.
During the summit, these countries pledged to deploy non-ATMIS troops to Somalia to defeat al-Shabab and strengthen the regional security effort.
However, recent developments have led to uncertainty as these countries have now reconsidered their troop commitments. The withdrawal of support has raised questions about the future of the Black Lion Operation and the effectiveness of regional cooperation in combating the al-Shabab threat.
Leaders from the respective countries are yet to issue official statements regarding the change in their stance, leaving the Somali Government and the International Community in suspense.
Diplomatic efforts are expected to intensify as Somali leaders seek to understand the motivations behind the withdrawal and explore potential avenues for future collaboration.
According to Somali officials, the Black Lion Operation is crucial for the restoration of stability in Somalia and the withdrawal of support from key regional allies adds uncertainty to the situation.
The Somali Government now faces challenges in tackling the terrorist group without the expected troop reinforcements from its neighboring allies.
Somali authorities have yet to comment on the sudden change in circumstances and are likely to seek clarification from Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti regarding the troop withdrawal.
REASONS FOR THE REVERSALS
Somali officials who spoke to the Horn Examiner said that an unforeseen withdrawal of financial support by the UAE for the operation in Somalia, amid suspicions of a secret plot against one of its allies, has largely influenced the decisions of regional allies.
The Emirates’ decision has reportedly came after realizing that Ethiopian forces, who were initially on board, intend to oust UAE’s ally, Ahmed Madobe, from power once they liberate Buale and the entire Jubaland region. This development has further complicated the already delicate situation in the region.
Kenya, another key player in the operation, is currently grappling with a domestic crisis triggered by economic troubles and ongoing opposition protests. The financial strain makes it difficult for Kenya to actively engage in Somalia without sufficient financial backing.
Meanwhile, Djibouti has announced its intention to send only 400 soldiers to participate in the operation, a significantly reduced number from what was initially expected. This has raised concerns about Djibouti’s level of commitment to the joint effort.
Adding to the complexities, Ethiopia, which had initially pledged to send 12,000 troops, has also decided to withdraw its agreement. The move followed Somalia’s recent foreign policy shift towards Cairo, although the specific reasons behind Ethiopia’s decision remain undisclosed.
Speculations are also rife that Ethiopia views the Federal Government’s recent forcible imposition of Jubaland officials on defiant Gedo community as both a ploy to bring anarchy to her doorstep and a visible collaboration between elements in the Somali National Security Apparatus and Al Shabaab terror group.
The original target for non-ATMIS (African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia) troops was set at 18,000. However, with the UAE and Ethiopia withdrawing their commitments and Djibouti providing a smaller contingent, the total number of troops for the operation has significantly decreased.
Meanwhile, the situation continues to be highly dynamic and sensitive in Somalia, with various geopolitical interests at play.
Alarmed by the development which left Somalia’s Federal Government leaders unsettled, efforts are now being made by the authorities to engage in discussions with Ethiopian authorities to better understand the reasons behind their withdrawal and explore possible resolutions.
The stakes are high, and the outcome will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the security and stability of the Horn of Africa.
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