In unexpected turn of event, Somalia recently announced a transition from its old hybrid/parliamentary system to a presidential one, bringing an end to the multiparty democracy in favor of a two-party system, a development that has generated mixed reactions among the Somali public and sparked controversies.
The new arrangements, reached on Sunday by the country’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and some Federal Member States (FMS) leaders under an umbrella called the National Consultative Council (NCC), have alarmed many, who have expressed worry about several aspects of the deal, notably the abolition of the Prime Minister’s position, which they pointed is blatant violation of the Constitution and will lead a consolidation of power in the hands of the President.
The NCC’s summit outcome, has been met with strong criticism from the country’s top leading politicians, including former presidents and several Ex-Prime Ministers. The former officials have sought for greater participation in the decision-making.
In a joint statement, Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and four Former Prime Ministers—Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmake, Hassan Ali Khayre, Abdiwali Sheikh Ahmed and Abdiweli Mohamed Ali of Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)—expressed their strong disapproval of the decisions made by the council during their summit in Mogadishu.
Although the former officials have jointly expressed support for any outcome that allows for direct elections for the Somali people, they called several other outcome of the the summit ‘unconstitutional’ due to the lack of participation of key stakeholders and the absence of Somalia’s oldest Federal Member State, Puntland. They also insisted that such big changes and reforms ought to be open to public scrutiny first.
Furthermore, the former leaders warned that making amendments to the current power-sharing model and structure without the participation of all stakeholders could undermine the confidence of the Somali people.
The officials also rejected the proposed term extension for the leaders of the Federal Government of Somalia – Federal Member States (FGS-FMS ) as the outcome of the NCC proposed.
In their strongly-worded statement, the former officials urged the Somali Parliament to reject any unconstitutional propositions that contradict the interests of the Somali people. Additionally, they demanded that the government prioritize the fight against Al-Shabab as a top concern.
Former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo has also echoed the other political leaders sentiments, offering an equivocal endorsement to the popular vote decision.
In a statement, Mr. Farmaajo, however, took swipe at the other clauses in the deal, warning against any violations of the provisional constitution and called on the council to prioritize consensus-building in their decision-making processes.
Under Somalia’s provisional constitution, making significant amendments such as the election system would require approval from the parliament before it’s declared legal, a requirement overlooked by the NCC, a move which has led to questions regarding the decision’s adherence to constitutional procedures.
This shift has also led to worries of regressive steps towards dictatorship, echoing strategies employed by many African dictators, past and present.
The introduction of a two-party system, has drawn comparisons to a former dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre’s tactics to suppress opposition and maintain a grip on power.
The decision to limit political participation to only two parties remains one area of concern that has drawn criticism by politicians who argue that the limitation denies citizens the opportunity for a fair and inclusive multi-party system.
The move, they warned represents a step backward, resulting in limited political representation and a lack of diverse voices within the government, with various stakeholders expressing concerns over its potential ramifications.
Critics also fear that history may repeat itself, potentially leading to a resurgence of authoritarianism and limiting the voices of dissent in Somalia.
“Is NCC turning into the Polity Bureau of past military regime or it has developed nostalgia for the time when the 1969 constitution was dissolved, parliamentary system/multiparty system suspended & one party system reconstituted. This may only add toxic into our political environment.” warned Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke, a former two-time Somali Prime Minister on his Twitter account over the ramifications of the NCC’s decisions.
Meanwhile, the exclusion of key stakeholders, including Puntland, from the decision-making process in the new transition decision has raised concerns about the legitimacy and inclusivity of the new electoral system.
The timing of the electoral transition agreement has raised additional concerns, especially amidst political crisis and disputes over term extensions by leaders of certain Federal Member States (FMS).
“Apart from the major constitutional changes cited in the NCC agreement, it is obvious that 1p1v will be impossible within the stated unconstitutional term extensions. So expect more extensions down the road that will complicate the AS war & taking on ATMIS responsibility in 2024.” Sharmarke, the former Prime Minister also said.
These challenges add complexity and the potential for conflict to the transition process. However, regional leaders emerge as the primary beneficiaries in the new transition, which granted then an additional two years in office, drawing condemnations from their political rivals and others across the political spectrum.
Opponents of the electoral transition have also pointed out vague aspects of the agreement, raising questions about its implementation. The clauses in question have led to concerns about potential confusion, disputes and controversies surrounding the upcoming elections.
The delicate balance between upholding the Constitution and ensuring a fair and inclusive democratic process remains at the center of the ongoing discourse.
Ironically, members of Mr. Mohamud’s inner circle have confirmed to Horn Examiner that the President made the significant changes without seeking input from his trusted advisors, thereby acting on his own in this matter to the displeasure of his close confidantes.
Furthermore, experts warned that the recent decision not only disregards the country’s provisional constitution but also fails to uphold the principles of multi-stakeholder involvement enshrined in it.
The Constitution emphasizes the importance of engaging all relevant political actors to foster consensus in the implementation of vital electoral reforms and expedite the process of holding credible elections, making the road to resolving these issues remains arduous, given the deeply entrenched divisions and vested interests among the political elites.
According to security experts, the new political crisis may lead to a shift in focus and resources away from the ongoing military operations against the al-Shabab group, which could hinder the government’s ability to effectively coordinate its efforts.
This leaves the fate of the country’s security and the ongoing anti al-Shabab military operations hanging in the balance, therefore raising concerns over potential al-Shabaab resurgence.
The new challenges also add extra pressure on Somalia’s security forces, who are already engaged in combating al-Shabaab across various regions, potentially weakening the security apparatus and create a void that terrorist organizations could exploit to their advantage to regroup and carry out fresh attacks in different regions of the country.
In light of that, Somali officials sounded the alarm that the new political squabbling poses a significant risk of reversing the hard-fought security gains made in the battle against terrorist organizations, warning that the stakes are too high to allow internal conflicts to overshadow the progress achieved thus far.
Al-Shabaab has a history of capitalizing on political chaos in Somalia that often leads to the diversion of resources and attention away from the military operations, hampering the ability of Somalia’s security forces to effectively combat al-Shabaab to the advantage of the terrorist group.
In the past, the Al-Qaeda-linked militant group also demonstrated its ability to adapt and exploit power vacuums, regaining control over lost territories and perpetrate acts of violence, carrying out suicide bombings and step up guerrilla warfare.
“It is not just a petty political dispute but rather a blatant disregard for the security and stability of the entire nation and their selfish agendas are paving the way for chaos and leaving Somalia vulnerable to al-Shabab threats.” Abdullahi Nur, a counterterrorism expert said.
The behavior of the leaders has been deemed “reckless” by Somalis, who see it as a disrespectful affront to the sacrifices made by many soldiers and civilians who fought for a stable Somalia over the years.
Despite refraining from publicly criticizing the Somali leaders over possible diplomatic reasons and protocols, one foreign diplomat and two representatives of international donors supporting Somalia in its efforts to rebuild and stabilize the country have also expressed deep concerns over the regular political crisis by Somalia’s political leaders.
“They are failing their people by indulging in petty disputes instead of focusing on building a robust security framework that can protect Somalia from internal and external threats.” – a Western diplomat told Horn Examiner under the condition of anonymity owing to the sensitivity of the matter.
The crisis could also undermine the public support for the president especially in his ongoing anti al-Shabab military operations.
“We are very supportive of President Mohamud’s commitment and efforts in defeating al Shabab, but he is now, sadly, busy with creating unnecessary political sideshows that only embolden al Shabab.”
Under Somalia’s provisional constitution, making significant amendments such as the election system would require approval from the parliament before it’s declared legal, a requirement overlooked by the NCC, a move which has led to questions regarding the decision’s adherence to constitutional procedures.
However, the latest controversial changes hasn’t surprised many given that the Somali government has recently adopted major agreements, such as the security pact with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and a concession deal with Coastline Explorations, without seeking parliamentary approval, dismissing growing calls for it to follow proper legal processes.
Facebook Comments